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FOMC minutes released this afternoon revealed the Fed doesn’t see inflation moving back to 2% until 2025, the MBA's seasonally adjusted purchase-mortgage application index recorded its lowest weekly reading since 1995, and the S&P is trending towards support.

Let’s keep it simple.

Market Headlines 👀

• Meta (META) plans to layoff thousands, after Zuckerberg said no more job cuts.

• SpaceX is changing Starlink prices.

• Apple (APPL) hit a major milestone in creating a blood glucose monitor, disguising the work behind a secretive health-care startup.

• JPMorgan (JPM) is attempting to curb its staff’s use of ChatGPT.

• Microsoft (MSFT) signed pacts to give Nintendo (NTDOY) and Nvidia (NVDA) access to “Call of Duty” games for a decade if its $75B deal to buy the developer, Activision Blizzard (ATVI) gets approved.

• China’s leading electric carmaker, BYD, has arrived in Germany.

• FOMC minutes released today revealed almost all Fed officials backed a 25 bps increase and see an elevated risk of recession.

• MBA mortgage applications came in at -13.3% (prior -7.7%). The US MBA 30-Yr Mortgage rate as of Feb 17 is now 6.62% (prior 6.39%).

Earnings 💸

• NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

  • EPS: $0.88 beats (exp. $0.81)

  • Revenue: $6.05B beats (exp. $6.02B)

  • “Datacenter rev. missed by 7% as I expected, street was wildly off on the gaming portion of the business upwards to 15% variabilities from top sell side models.” - @JlinWins

  • Surging in after hours trading by ▲ +7.5%.

• Etsy (ETSY)

  • EPS: $0.77 misses (exp. $0.80)

  • Revenue: $807.2M beats (exp. $751.3M)

• Lucid (LCID)

  • EPS: $0.28 beats (exp. -$0.40)

  • Revenue: $257M misses (exp. of $315M)

• Unity Software (U)

  • EPS: $0.03 beats (exp. $0.01)

  • Revenue: $451M beats (exp. $434.7M)

• Global E-Online (GLBE)

  • EPS: $0.18 misses (exp. $0.29)

  • Revenue: $139.9M beats (exp. $138.71M)

Recap Around the Street 🧠

FOMC minutes released this afternoon revealed the Fed doesn’t see inflation moving back to 2% until 2025.

• Almost all Fed officials backed a 25 bps hike in Feb.

• Expect "restrictive policy" until inflation hits 2%.

• The Fed sees an elevated risk of recession.

• "A few" officials backed a 50 bps hike in Feb.

• Fed pivots typically occur as the Federal Funds rate is reaching levels that could cause market duress, signaling the Fed to stop. (@rhemrajani9).

Markets turned red after an initial spike on FOMC minutes.

Large-cap earnings have largely underwhelmed for Q4 2022.

Oil extended its longest run of losses this year after the Fed’s minutes showed officials plan to continue further rate hikes. The minutes add to concerns that a US economic slowdown will reduce demand.

There’s an interesting dynamic in the housing market right now. The home building community has welcomed the demand improvement in 2023, but it is being carefully watched by policymakers trying to get inflation under control.

• 31% of January purchases were first-time buyers (same as December).

• 29% of total sales were cash (investors’ preferred means of purchase).

• Sales of single-family homes dropped to 0.8%, marking their lowest level since 2010.

Market Preview 🎞️

• Eurozone CPI, Thursday

• US GDP, initial jobless claims, Thursday

• Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks, Thursday

• BOJ governor nominee Kazuo Ueda will appear in front of Japan’s lower house, Friday

• US PCE deflator, personal spending, new home sales, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday

  • All eyes will be on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index — the Fed's most closely watched assessment of how quickly prices are rising across the economy.

Thats all for today, folks! We’ll be back at the same time tomorrow with a curated list of important news, economic data and market highlights. 

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