Welcome Back,

Powell is back on the mic, he raises rates once again.

Let’s keep it concise.

Market Headlines 👀

• US ADP Non-farm payrolls comes in at 296k; est 148k.

• BlackRock (BLK) is being tasked with cleaning up $114b in capital after the SVIB and Signature bank collapses.

• US Treasury is launching a buyback program for the first time since 2000.

• US Federal Reserve raises benchmark rate 25bps and hints at a pause.

• US ISM Services gauge comes in at 51.9; prev month; 51.2.

• Microsoft (MSFT) Chief economist warns about the ramifications artificial intelligence.

• United Airlines (UAL) plans to hire 50,000 new workers through 2025.

• Airbnb (ABNB) revamps website to include a new section called Airbnb rooms for individual private room bookings.

Earnings 💸

• CVS Health Corp (CVS)

  • EPS: $2.20 beats (exp. $2.09)

  • Revenue: $85.28b beats (exp. $80.85b)

• Qualcomm (QCOM)

  • EPS: $ 2.15 meets (exp. $2.15)

  • Revenue: $9.27b beats (exp. $9.09b)

• Etsy (ETSY)

  • EPS: $0.53 beats (exp. $0.49)

  • Revenue: $640m beats (exp. $621.1m)

• MercadoLibre (MELI)

  • EPS: $3.97 beats (exp. $3.04)

  • Revenue: $3b beats (exp. $2.9b)

• Estee Lauder (EL)

  • EPS: $0.47 misses (exp. $0.51)

  • Revenue: $3.75b beats (exp. $3.71b)

• HubSpot (HUBS)

  • EPS: $1.20 beats (exp. $0.83)

  • Revenue: $501.6m beats (exp. $474.87m)

• JFrog (FROG)

  • EPS: $0.06 beats (exp. $0.03)

  • Revenue: $79.8m beats (exp. $78.38m)

S&P 500 Heap Map

Recap Around the Street 🧠

This chart displays the historical Fed Funds Rate (FFR) juxtaposed against key moments of financial market volatility, the latest being the SIVB collapse in mid-March 2023. The historical pattern for the FFR is that it does not remain at peak levels for very long before being cut as peak Fed Funds tent to coincide with economic/financial stress that compels the Fed to reverse the tightening (and in hindsight implies overtightening). (contributed by Benjamin Lavine, CIO at 3D/L Capital)

Systematic traders that tend to follow short-term momentum price trends have been increasing their net equity exposure while traditional investors have been pulling back.(contributed by Benjamin Lavine, CIO at 3D/L Capital)

ADP April jobs report by sector…

Newsletter shoutout 🔎

If you enjoy investing in stocks, want help navigating today's volatile markets, and/or like reading others stock analysis to get different points of view, Stock Market Nerd is definitely worth the read.

Weekly issues insightfully cover & contextualize relevant news from popular companies like CrowdStrike, SoFi and Shopify with some macro and market commentary sprinkled in.

The Nerd’s Deep Dives (they’re actually deep dives) are extensive reports on a single company detailing business model, investment case, risks and every other important detail that investors should know.

And the best part? It’s 100% FREE. Good luck finding this quality of free research on public companies elsewhere. Check it out and subscribe now!

Market Preview 🎞️

• Thursday, May 4th: ECB rate decision; Jobless claims

• Thursday earnings: Apple (AAPL), Datadog (DDOG), Shopify (SHOP), Block (SQ), Coinbase (COIN), DraftKings (DKNG), Peloton (PTON), Atlassian (TEAM), Lyft (LYFT), Moderna (MRNA), Booking Holding (BKNG), Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL), and ConocoPhillips (COP)

• Friday, May 5th: Non-farm payrolls; Consumer credit

• Friday earnings: AMC Networks (AMC)

That’s all for today, folks! We’ll be back around the same time tomorrow with a curated list of important news, economic data and market highlights. 

🔔 Be the first to know. Ensure you never do more than one read if you:

• Move our emails (especially your subscriber introduction) to your primary inbox (Quick instructions).

• 👋 Say hi. Responding to our emails (if any) lets your email provider know to not block us from your main inbox.