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Market Headlines 👀 

• US President Trump is considering 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as early as February 1st.

• Perplexity the private AI search startup has made a formal merger bid to TikTok’s parent company Bytedance.

• Meta Platforms (META) exploring new products which include earbuds to compete with Apple, a smartwatch and Oakley branded glasses.

• Netflix (NFLX) reported its earnings, easily surpassing the street estimate on subscriber growth, adding 18.9m subs to its platform in Q4.

• Bitcoin (BTC) cryptocurrency hits $109,000 briefly having another strong day.

• Oracle (ORCL) President Trump is planning to make a big investment on AI infrastructure which would also be backed by Oracle, OpenAi, Softbank and others.

Earnings 💸

• Netflix (NFLX)

  • EPS: $4.28 beats (exp. $4.20)

  • Revenue: $10.25b beats (exp. $10.11b)

• United Airlines (UAL)

  • EPS: $3.26 beats (exp. $2.99)

  • Revenue: $14.7b beats (exp. $14.4b)

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S&P 500 Heatmap 🔥 

Recap Around the Street 🧠

Netflix earnings snapshot (contributed by Brad Freeman @Stockmarketnerd):

Economic and Policy Expectations

While we expect growth to moderate from 2024’s robust 2.7% pace, we do not expect a recession in 2025 at this time. Our 2024 construct of a Strange Landing still holds, as classic economic data relationships remain heavily distorted, making traditional indicators or cycle analysis a prone to delivering misleading signals.

The outlook for 2025 needs to begin with an acknowledgement of what kept real GDP growth strong in 2023 (+2.9%) and 2024 (+2.7%), while allowing inflation to moderate in the wake of an aggressive Fed hiking cycle. We see the following factors:

• The U.S. economy has exhibited less sensitivity to short-term interest rates this cycle

• Productivity growth surged following its COVID-era plunge during the “The Great Resignation”

• The working-age population soared due to an influx of immigrants supplying low-cost labor

• Treasury funding actions kept bank liquidity ample despite Fed tightening and high deficits, which allowed for strong asset prices that fueled a powerful wealth effect

• AI-related tech investment driving business investment

The great expectation of 2025 is that all, or at least most, of these factors will continue to help foster disinflationary economic growth.(Contributed by Cameron Dawson, CIO at NewEdge Wealth).

Market Preview 🎞️ 

• Tuesday, January 21st: Philadelphia Fed manufacturing activity

• Wednesday, January 22nd: MBA mortgage applications; Consumer price index (CPI); Empire state manufacturing

• Wednesday earnings: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

• Thursday, January 23rd: Weekly jobless claims

• Thursday earnings: American Airlines (AAL), and Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 

• Friday, January 24th: University of Michigan sentiment; Existing home sales

Enjoy reading?👇

That’s all for today, folks! We’ll be back around the same time Thursday with a curated list of important news, economic data and market highlights. 

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